IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.6	#84
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.8	#212
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.8	#101

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.8	#76

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.4%	2.1%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	2.7%	3.7%	0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	35.7%	40.3%	26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	8.1%	10.9%	3.4%
Average Seed	11.3	10.9	12.3

.500 or above	94.2%	97.1%	88.5%
.500 or above in Conference	95.0%	96.6%	92.0%
Conference Champion	39.2%	43.6%	30.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%

First Four	2.4%	2.8%	1.6%
First Round	34.5%	38.8%	26.0%
Second Round	11.3%	13.7%	6.6%
Sweet Sixteen	3.7%	4.4%	2.3%
Elite Eight	1.1%	1.5%	0.5%
Final Four	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Neutral) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	2 - 3
Quad 3	7 - 3	9 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 1	20 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	127	Arkansas Little Rock	W	75-71	66%
Nov 27, 2020	124	Winthrop	W	78-74	65%
Dec 02, 2020	90	Duquesne	W	72-71	52%
Dec 02, 2020	302	Prairie View	W	79-64	91%
Dec 04, 2020	26	@ Louisville	L	66-75	20%
Dec 15, 2020	307	South Carolina Upstate	W	82-64	95%
Dec 19, 2020	215	@ Elon	W	73-66	74%
Dec 22, 2020	309	@ N.C. A&T	W	81-69	86%
Dec 30, 2020	317	@ The Citadel	W	87-73	89%
Jan 02, 2021	142	East Tennessee St.	W	72-64	77%
Jan 06, 2021	148	@ Wofford	W	71-68	58%
Jan 09, 2021	183	Mercer	W	76-65	82%
Jan 13, 2021	182	@ Western Carolina	W	80-75	66%
Jan 16, 2021	301	@ Samford	W	84-72	84%
Jan 20, 2021	148	Wofford	W	74-65	77%
Jan 23, 2021	158	@ Chattanooga	W	73-70	61%
Jan 27, 2021	83	@ Furman	L	69-72	40%
Jan 30, 2021	276	VMI	W	80-64	91%
Feb 03, 2021	317	The Citadel	W	90-70	95%
Feb 06, 2021	301	Samford	W	87-69	93%
Feb 10, 2021	83	Furman	W	72-69	58%
Feb 13, 2021	183	@ Mercer	W	73-68	66%
Feb 17, 2021	276	@ VMI	W	77-67	80%
Feb 21, 2021	158	Chattanooga	W	76-67	78%
Feb 24, 2021	182	Western Carolina	W	83-72	81%
Feb 27, 2021	142	@ East Tennessee St.	W	69-67	57%
Projected Record						19 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.8	5.4	10.2	10.6	7.9	2.9		39.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.7	3.4	7.2	7.9	4.7	1.1				25.1	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.8	3.3	5.8	3.8	1.1	0.1					14.9	3rd
4th									0.1	0.6	2.4	3.7	1.8	0.2	0.0						8.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.0	0.5	1.8	2.3	0.9	0.1								5.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.4	1.3	1.3	0.5	0.0	0.0								3.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0										1.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0											0.7	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.4	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														0.1	10th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.3	2.5	3.9	6.0	8.7	11.3	13.1	14.4	15.0	11.8	7.9	2.9			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	2.9		2.9
17-1	100.0%	7.9		7.6	0.3
16-2	90.4%	10.6		8.7	1.9	0.0
15-3	67.8%	10.2		6.4	3.5	0.3
14-4	37.5%	5.4		2.3	2.4	0.7	0.0
13-5	14.0%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	39.2%	39.2		28.4	9.0	1.6	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	2.9%		93.6%	65.1%	28.5%	6.3		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.2		81.8%
17-1	7.9%		80.5%	57.2%	23.3%	9.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.5	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.0	0.3	0.0			1.5		54.5%
16-2	11.8%		63.4%	49.4%	14.0%	11.1					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.5	1.0	1.8	2.4	1.0	0.2	0.0		4.3		27.6%
15-3	15.0%		47.3%	40.9%	6.3%	12.0								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.8	2.0	0.4	0.0		7.9		10.7%
14-4	14.4%		34.0%	31.4%	2.6%	12.6										0.0	0.1	0.4	1.8	1.8	0.8	0.0		9.5		3.8%
13-5	13.1%		23.6%	23.3%	0.2%	13.1											0.0	0.1	0.8	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0	10.0		0.3%
12-6	11.3%		18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	13.6												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.0	9.2		0.0%
11-7	8.7%		11.9%	11.9%		13.9												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	7.6
10-8	6.0%		9.3%	9.3%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	5.5
9-9	3.9%		5.7%	5.7%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	3.7
8-10	2.5%		4.4%	4.4%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	2.4
7-11	1.3%		2.4%	2.4%		15.5																0.0	0.0	1.3
6-12	0.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
5-13	0.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
4-14	0.1%																							0.1
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		35.7%	30.1%	5.7%	11.3		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	2.0	2.9	4.8	9.2	7.5	3.5	1.1	0.3	64.3		8.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	3.0	19.5	27.0	15.1	16.1	20.0	2.1	0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	92.4%	4.2	15.2	7.6	8.6	24.8	8.6	17.1	1.0	1.9	7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	5.2		17.6	15.7	5.9	2.0	23.5	17.6	17.6